Close to the real world, but far away.
They were right about conflict in the Muslim world, and about the devastation it would wreak. They simply misjudged how far east it would happen. (Another side effect of the Schroer and Pendleton administrations, and their preference for letting Utopia, rather than the US directly, reshape the Middle East.)
2006
[Aberrant] In the wake of last month's Kashmir atrocity, ongoing tensions in the region erupt into a small-scale war. Nova elites representing India, China and Pakistan fight across the zone, turning it into a blasted ecological nightmare. Project Utopia steps in to stop the fighting, under UN authority, and arrests several of the novas deemed responsible for the disaster.
They were right about conflict in the Muslim world, and about the devastation it would wreak. They simply misjudged how far east it would happen. (Another side effect of the Schroer and Pendleton administrations, and their preference for letting Utopia, rather than the US directly, reshape the Middle East.)